OBG08 Projections for Padres Hitters
Sat, Feb 16, 2008
by Geoff Young
Here are the results of our community projections for 2008 Padres hitters. To see voting and discussion for an individual player, click on his name. A spreadsheet containing all of our picks will be available shortly. Thanks to all for participating!
| Player | No. | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; PA, plate appearances; BA, batting average; OBP, on-base percentage; SLG, slugging percentage; OPS range, lower and upper guesses for OBP + SLG. | ||||||
| Catchers | ||||||
| Bard, Josh | 19 | 425 | .278 | .357 | .410 | 725 - 816 |
| Barrett, Michael | 19 | 246 | .263 | .323 | .419 | 670 - 830 |
| Infielders | ||||||
| Gonzalez, Adrian | 19 | 641 | .293 | .362 | .517 | 780 - 935 |
| Greene, Khalil | 21 | 561 | .257 | .309 | .464 | 730 - 832 |
| Iguchi, Tadahito | 17 | 532 | .263 | .341 | .391 | 680 - 774 |
| Kouzmanoff, Kevin | 20 | 597 | .294 | .355 | .503 | 800 - 1026 |
| Outfielders | ||||||
| Edmonds, Jim | 17 | 402 | .255 | .338 | .418 | 645 - 840 |
| Giles, Brian | 17 | 531 | .274 | .373 | .412 | 700 - 860 |
| Hairston, Scott | 20 | 392 | .268 | .327 | .467 | 741 - 860 |
| Headley, Chase | 15 | 240 | .266 | .347 | .435 | 670 - 900 |
A few quick comments:
- If Gonzalez comes anywhere near that low mark, then his career has gone horribly wrong and the Padres are hosed.
- The high-end projection for Kouz is nuts. If he does that, he’s the NL MVP.
- The guesses on Edmonds are all over the place, although nobody sees him playing a lot.
- We believe that Hairston is the Padres’ best slugging outfielder, and it’s not close.
- We’re not buying into the “Headley as left fielder” movement that’s been brewing over the winter.
Tomorrow we’ll run the pitchers. Enjoy!
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February 16, 2008 at 2:30 pm
good stuff, it’ll be fun to see the outcomes at the end of the year
February 16, 2008 at 2:34 pm
oh and btw for the feb 22nd USD vs SDSU game, my boss is saying there will be a minimum of 50 scouts and closer to 75-150 in total.. so it could be pretty crowded.
we sell the tixs at our main office at the Q gate E if anyone wants to guarantee themselves a ticket.
and im still able to get the tixs at a semi reduced price and will still be at TG stadium starting at 3 on the 22nd.
it should be a great game.
February 16, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Here was my comment when I saw the high Kouz projection in late January:
“#6- .322/.400/.626 - 612 PAs?!? I sure hope so, because that would probably take home MVP honors.
Ken Caminiti in ‘96: .326/.408/.621
I’ll say .305/.370/.495 - 650 PA
I’d be real happy with that.”
If all of my projections are close, we’ll have a pretty good offense. I’m afraid I was too optomistic, though.
February 16, 2008 at 5:50 pm
#2: Cool, thanks for the reminder. It’d be sweet if we could get some folks out for that.
#3: Yes, Lance, you did note the resemblance to Cammy’s ‘96 season; I’d forgotten about that. Good call.
February 16, 2008 at 6:24 pm
GY, I’m mildly surprised that these projections are not terribly optimistic relative to past performance. Total BA for the 9 players with experience is 2445 vs. 2404 actual, using only the last 3 years for BG and Edmunds. (1.7%+) OBP total projected exceeds actual by53 pts also 1.7%. SLG totals 4001 vs, 3929 or a 1.8% increase. The largest projection over actual is Kouz (11%) as you suggested. If I get a chance in the next couple days I’ll send you the details.
February 16, 2008 at 7:25 pm
I like John Sickles’ work … here’s his look back to 2003 top prospects …
http://minorleagueball.com/sto.....commenttop
… and what jump’d out at me was
1- Mark Teixeira, 3B, Grade A, 104 win shares
2- Joe Mauer, C, 82 win shares
3 - Victor Martinez, C, 97 win shares
4 - Brandon Phillips, SS, 37 win shares
5 - Mike Cuddyer, OF, 60 win shares
6 - Jose Reyes, SS, 87 win shares
7 - Hee Seop Choi, 1B, 26 win shares
8 - Scott Hairston, 2B, Grade A-, 9 win shares
9 - Miguel Cabrera, 3B, 127 win shares
10 - Travis Hafner, 1B, 98 win shares
11 - Jason Stokes, 1B, ruined by injuries
12 - Justin Morneau, 1B, 65 win shares
13 - Casey Kotchman, 1B, 21 win shares
14 - Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, 46 win shares
… check out #8 vs #9 and #14! Can Hairston still live up to that potential/promise?
February 16, 2008 at 7:28 pm
GY … nice poll … made me go to wikipedia …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowabunga
… dude, you misspelled Cowabunga!!!
Howdy Doody … who’d a thunk he’d turn out to be a trend setter, still makin’ an impact in 2008!
February 16, 2008 at 8:02 pm
#5: That is interesting. Collectively we might be smarter than we look.
#6: Wow, I’d forgotten he was so high on Hairston.
#7: So I did. And I had no idea that term went back to Howdy Doody. I was thinking of Bart Simpson. Learn something new every day…
February 18, 2008 at 10:50 am
I didn’t mean to make a mockery of these projections, Geoff. Really. Although if Kouz goes out of mind, I will take all the credit.
February 18, 2008 at 11:57 am
#9: Stephen, it’s not a mockery if that’s what you believe the guy will do. I actually find the outliers refreshing.
February 18, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Comparing our projections to Marcel & PECOTA… which system was highest on each stat:
Player (PA) BA/OBA/SLG
Brian Giles (M) DS/DS/M
Scott Hairston (P) DS/P/P
Kevin Kouzmanoff (DS) DS/DS/DS
Adrian Gonzalez (DS) DS/DS/DS
Khalil Greene (P) DS/P/DS
Jim Edmonds (M) DS/M/M
Josh Bard (M) M/P/M
Tadahito Iguchi (DS) M/P/M
Looks like we’ll probably end up having guessed high on Gonzalez and Kouz and low on Bard.